A Fundamental Reason House Prices Will Fall This Fall

Sep 25, 2022

Interactive Charts

My first article in Fortune!

The Fundamental Reason House Prices Will Fall This Fall

“The prices people expect tomorrow influence demand and supply today.”

“The takeaway is that demand will continue to fall for many months–regardless of mortgage rates–because people are slowly lowering their expectations for future house price increases. Housing demand is falling along with the expectations for house price increases in the future.”

Number of Single-Family Houses Hitting the Phoenix MLS
1,000 to 2,000 Square Feet

Number of Single-Family Houses Hitting the Phoenix MLS
5,000+ Square Feet

Quick Tweets

John Wake @JohnWake

Seems unsustainable. atlantafed.org/center-for-hou…

John Wake @JohnWake

Entry level home mortgage payments is up 42% in 1 year in Phoenix, according to @JBREC .

Annie Radecki @ALROnHousing

Some perspective on the magnitude of housing cost increases in the past year due to a combo of higher prices and higher mortgage rates. (source @jbrec) https://t.co/B3vHTejpWm

Texas Runner DFW @texasrunnerDFW

Spoke with a lender in CA today and he mentioned more and more sellers are paying buyers closing costs Worth nothing, as that’s often 20k of value to a buyer that won’t show up in closed sales price data #housingmarket

John Wake @JohnWake

Mike DelPrete's latest on Opendoor. Opendoor is probably the biggest single buyer of single-family houses in metro Phoenix. Their business decisions can affect the Phoenix market. mikedp.com/articles/2022/…

ARMLS @ARMLS

Monthly sales decreased 28.8% in August compared to August 2021. "Our market is best defined as balanced. ... Supply is low, but demand is equally low." View the most recent STAT here: bit.ly/3BUC1LT

John Wake @JohnWake

Phoenix No. 2 in the U.S. for cutting prices on home listings

azbigmedia.comPhoenix No. 2 in the U.S. for cutting prices on home listings - AZ Big MediaData shows Phoenix is No. 2 in U.S. for home listings seeing a price cut, with a staggering 43.1% of home listings seeing a price cut.

Taylor Marr @TaylorAMarr

85% of Homeowners with Mortgages Have a Rate Far Below Today’s Level (<5%). Redfin found that homeowners with a rate below 3.5% were 7.6% less likely to put their homes up for sale in August than homeowners with a rate above 3.5%.

redfin.com85% of Homeowners with Mortgages Have a Rate Far Below Today’s Level, a Factor Prompting Many to Stay PutSome homeowners are hesitant to sell as mortgage rates soar because they’ve locked in a low interest rate, contributing to a slump in listings.

John Wake @JohnWake

Although they were in the news constantly in 2021, all cash purchases weren't a ton higher in 2021 than in 2001. redfin.com/news/all-cash-…

Juliette Rihl @JulietteRihl

Check out my first story for @azcentral! Shooting at Scottsdale Airbnb motivates short-term rental opponents

azcentral.comVacation rental shooting in Scottsdale adds fuel to Airbnb oppositionA boom in short-term rentals has resulted in hundreds of nuisance calls to police and concerns about Scottsdale’s depleted housing supply.

Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version.

Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above).

This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.

Arizona Real Estate Notebook

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