Crash in Phoenix Single-Family House Sales
2023 Phoenix single-family house sales are down 40% from 2021
It's safe to say we're in a real estate sales recession.
Huge downside risk for real estate prices IF the overall U.S. economy also goes into recession.
Fortunately, a "soft landing" is looking more and more likely for the overall U.S. economy.
Phoenix house prices flat for 2 years
Phoenix January median single-family house sold price up 4% from January a year ago but the same as January 2022.
This Twitter thread went viral
60,000+ views
AirbnBusted
Heard a story about a landlord buying a house & turning it into a short-term rental.
A neighbor somehow found out the mortgage was for a primary residence = mortgage occupancy fraud.
Neighbor told lender.
House soon put up for sale again.
A Philly Fed study says including owner-occupancy fraud mortgages "increases the size of the effective investor population by nearly 50 percent."
"These fraudulent borrowers perform substantially worse than similar declared investors, defaulting at a 75 percent higher rate."
From the conclusion of that Philadelphia Fed study.
"We identify widespread occupancy fraud in residential mortgages, both during the housing bubble and also in recent origination vintages. In contrast to previous studies, we are also able to show that occupancy fraud was common in the GSE market and in loans held in portfolio, not just in private MBS. We find that mortgage borrowers who misrepresented their occupancy status performed worse than otherwise similar declared investors. Their default decisions are also more strategic than other borrower types. Our results are economically significant and suggest that such fraud may also pose a risk in future boom-bust cycles."
A reply on Twitter said, “Occupancy fraud can also be reported to Fannie Mae & the FBI, not just the lender. Both Fannie Mae & the FBI have specific forms on their sites for reporting mortgage fraud.“
20% of Phoenix single-family houses for rent are owned by large institutional landlords (own at least 1,000 houses)
Source: ResiClub
Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive versions.
Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above).
This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.