Arizona Real Estate Notebook

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Expectations for Future House Prices Have Been All Over the Place the Last 2 Months

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Expectations for Future House Prices Have Been All Over the Place the Last 2 Months

Mar 13
2
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Expectations for Future House Prices Have Been All Over the Place the Last 2 Months

arizonarealestatenotebook.substack.com
  • Interactive Charts - Weekly and Monthly


In January, inflation was slowing and many people felt the Fed would stop increasing interest rates sooner than previously expected.

In February, however, the employment numbers were so strong many felt the Fed would have to keep interest rates higher for longer to fight inflation.

Last week, however, the failure of Silicon Valley Bank hit and now many think the Fed can’t keep interest rates higher for longer.

I wonder what next week will bring.

Housing is the most sensitive sector to interest rates, so to a large degree, the change in the value of your house is determined by how the Fed changes interest rates.


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John Wake @JohnWake
From The Cromford Report Feb Maricopa County Data 🔹 Opendoor purchased 20 homes but sold 243. 🔹OfferPad purchased 0 homes but sold 65. 🔹Large-scale institutional investors bought 118. In Feb 2022 they bought 531. 🔹Wholesalers are active again.
6:00 PM ∙ Mar 13, 2023
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The real monthly mortgage payment price of houses in Phoenix is still very high.

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John Wake @JohnWake
Gov. Hobbs released report that Gov. Ducey did not release regarding water supplies in Buckeye, Arizona. azcentral.com/story/news/loc…
11:29 PM ∙ Mar 8, 2023
13Likes7Retweets
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Jon Lansner @jonlan
@JohnWake Fed forced to bailout banks … that makes official: It’s a bubble!
5:45 AM ∙ Mar 13, 2023
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John Wake @JohnWake
San Francisco Fed Board of Directors December 2022 vs Today
Image
Image
10:18 PM ∙ Mar 11, 2023
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John Wake @JohnWake
This doesn't look good. reventureconsulting.com
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2:13 AM ∙ Mar 1, 2023
133Likes25Retweets
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John Wake @JohnWake
Residential construction employment should start to fall steeply at any time. This guy's analysis is always worth watching.
youtu.beMy final thoughts on the coming recessionConstruction employment is a significant driver of recessions in the US economy. Job losses almost always begin in the construction sector because it’s a ver...
6:40 PM ∙ Mar 10, 2023
27Likes8Retweets

But at least spring has sprung in Phoenix!

This might be the best time of year here!

I also LOVE October.

Image

Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version.


Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above).


This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.

  • Phoenix Weekly Market Updates 2023

  • Phoenix Weekly Market Graph (only)

  • Long-term Phoenix real estate market graphs

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Expectations for Future House Prices Have Been All Over the Place the Last 2 Months

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