Arizona Real Estate Notebook

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Number of Phoenix Houses for Sale is Back to Pre-Covid Levels

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Number of Phoenix Houses for Sale is Back to Pre-Covid Levels

John Wake
Jul 10, 2022
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Number of Phoenix Houses for Sale is Back to Pre-Covid Levels

arizonarealestatenotebook.substack.com

I think I see a trend.


  • I got quoted in Newsweek and Business Insider last week!!!

  • And I came out with a new piece on Forbes.com, “The Great Appreciation Of Home Prices Is Now Over“.

    • “All of the real, inflation-adjusted U.S. home price appreciation from 1990 to 2021 was due to falling interest rates, at least according to this simple analysis. U.S. mortgage rates may never go lower than they were last year so the multi-decade Great Appreciation of house prices is now over.”

  • The Fed just came out with a paper titled, “Volatility in Home Sales and Prices: Supply or Demand?“. A month earlier I came out with a post titled, “The Volatility Mismatch Theory of Housing Supply and Demand, and House Price Instability“.

Twitter avatar for @JohnWake
John Wake @JohnWake
Supply Myth Great, quick summary of the new Fed paper... and the real estate market. Read the whole thing. "They conclude, “… fluctuations in demand explain essentially all of the variation in home sales, and 80% of the variation in prices, between 2002-2021.”"
Twitter avatar for @BetterDwelling
Better Dwelling @BetterDwelling
Pandemic Real Estate Boom Due To Cheap Debt, Not Lack of Supply: US Federal Reserve #realestate https://t.co/QfNolIf1LL
7:45 PM ∙ Jul 8, 2022
9Likes4Retweets

Mike Orr at The Cromford Report.

“If you have a home in the price range $500,000 to $600,000, our advice is to accept that you have a lot of competition from other sellers and the market trend is not moving in your favor. Be realistic in your expectations and you will probably be fine. But price too high and you could be left chasing a falling market with price cuts that may come too late.”

I haven’t heard an allusion to the, “Chasing the market down” expression in years. What’s next, “Catch a falling knife”?


After the boom and bust of the 2000s, this became my standard advice to sellers.

“Price your house where you think prices will be in 2 months. Don’t chase the market down. Get ahead of the market.” - John Wake

This pricing strategy works well whether prices are going up, down, or sideways.


Click on the Tweet below to see the full graphic.

Phoenix was #4 for increases in the percentage of houses purchased by investors from Q1 2021 to Q1 2022, at least according to the measure they used.

Twitter avatar for @NewsLambert
Lance Lambert @NewsLambert
The Pandemic Housing Boom saw investors pile into the U.S. housing market.
Image
6:14 PM ∙ Jun 26, 2022
231Likes92Retweets

The whole Twitter thread is good.


Twitter avatar for @JohnWake
John Wake @JohnWake
@marcuswerther @TonyPeric When investors bail out of other investments and prices tank (e.g. meme stocks, etc) only investors get hurt. When investors bail out of houses, it's mainly innocent first-home buyers who get hurt. The only thing they did wrong was turn first-home buyer age at the wrong time.
2:09 AM ∙ Jun 27, 2022
13Likes3Retweets
Twitter avatar for @JohnWake
John Wake @JohnWake
@OGtexasrunner @NewsLambert Likely, we already have 2030 prices. Millennials will likely make most of their money from home ownership the old fashioned way, as they pay off their mortgages, and via inflation. Demographics will soften soon too. The Great Appreciation is over.
10:25 PM ∙ Jul 1, 2022
11Likes1Retweet

But mainly what I did last week was help Liz babysit our first grandkid, Jamie.


Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version.


Let’s zoom in on New Listings and Solds.


This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.

  • Phoenix Weekly Market Updates 2022

  • Phoenix Weekly Market Graph (only)

  • Long-term Phoenix real estate market graphs

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Number of Phoenix Houses for Sale is Back to Pre-Covid Levels

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