Phoenix House Prices Lower than a Year Ago!

We're going to see this headline a lot in 2023

• Interactive Charts - Weekly and Monthly

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I Think I See a Trend

The median price of single-family houses sold via the Phoenix area MLS was down 3% from a year earlier, according to preliminary data for December 2022.

The key question right now for the 2023 Phoenix real estate market is, “Will Phoenix house prices increase like they normally do in February?”.

We can get a good feel for what the median sale price will be in February by following the median price of houses that go pending (under-contact) in January.

If the median price goes against the typical seasonal trend and does NOT increase in February, that would be a very bad sign for the rest of 2023. Pull up a chair and let’s see what happens.

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John Wake @JohnWake

Phoenix building permits for single-family houses in March were the highest since 2006 and 66% higher than 2 years ago March. Looks like more supply is on the way.

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John Wake @JohnWake

The party line, "Home sales are down but so are the number of homes for sale, so prices won't fall." Me. "Yeah, but with such low sales, prices are especially sensitive to any increase, for any reason, in the number of houses for sale."

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John Wake @JohnWake

"The canals that lead up to her property are full again thanks to Coolidge Dam, which had dried up in June. Today, the water levels are at 220,700 acre feet, the highest mark since March 2017."

fox10phoenix.comCoolidge Dam records highest water level in 5 years, a relief for Arizona farmersSix months ago, Caywood Farms in Casa Grande was dusty, dry and brown. Now it’s wet, muddy and most importantly - it’s green.

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John Wake @JohnWake

5 Metro Phoenix zip codes switch from homeowner to renter majority

azbigmedia.com5 Metro Phoenix zip codes switch from homeowner to renter majority - AZ Big MediaMetro Phoenix zip codes have switched from homeowner to renter majority during the last 10 years. Here’s a look at the numbers.

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John Wake @JohnWake

Houston vs. San Francisco If getting rid of zoning is so good for housing supply and house prices, why have house prices increased more in Houston than in San Francisco since 2010? Has demand been more important than supply for house prices? fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=YdvH

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Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive version.

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Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above).

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This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.

• Phoenix Weekly Market Updates 2022

• Phoenix Weekly Market Graph (only)

• Long-term Phoenix real estate market graphs