Single-Family Houses for Sale in the Phoenix MLS
The number of houses hitting the market is VERY low but the number of houses selling is even LOWER so the number of houses that are For Sale is increasing unusually fast for this time of year.
If it continues increasing like this, it would upend the very delicate balance we’ve been having between supply and demand.
But will the number of houses for sale continue increasing?
If it’s still increasing this time next month that would be a VERY strong sign the market is WAY off balance and prices are headed down.
As you can see, however, the number of houses For Sale typically peaks right about now, the number of houses For Sale doesn’t continue increasing… at least for long.
The bifurcated housing market
ResiClub - https://www.resiclubanalytics.com/p/bifurcated-housing-market-told-3-charts
Click on the graphs to go to the full-size, interactive versions.
Notice how very small changes in New Listings and Solds eventually cause HUGE changes in the number of houses For Sale and house Prices (see graph above).
This information can vary a lot in different parts of metro Phoenix. Your real estate agent can find the data for your specific city or zip code at The Cromford Report.
Unemployment rate rose. Number quitting a job declined. Short term rental rates and occupancy dipped. Add those factors and it would seem the trend you've identified will continue or worsen. It will take a burst of new employment to blunt the trend. The kind of burst that would come from TSMCs plant going on line.
Also note MFR new construction has dipped. Construction jobs will decline. But the rate of new housing coming on the market will also dampen