Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts - Weekly and Monthly. Home Prices are a Lagging Economic Indicator Most of the declines in house prices happen AFTER a recession ENDS!! The S&L recession ended in March 1991. The Great Recession ended in June 2009.
So many anomolies - so many geopolitical and climate driven events.
At the very core of survival the three essentials have always been "shelter, sustenance, and medical".
No reason to rehash the "sustenance" question. The climate driven threats to water and food supplies already exceed what I believed would be the worst levels I would witness before I died. (I've got a couple of good decades of life left).
The cost of shelter already exceeds the 2004 bubble - far beyond the 30% of income standard.
In response, birth rates are dropping. Population aging. If you can barely afford to live on your own, you certainly will rethink making some babies.
Those phenomenon are intensifying - not abating. So what does it all mean for housing?
The shortage of family-friendly housing is a major reason for declines in the sizes of families. Or decisions never to start a family. That trend has been going on in Arizona since 2011. But we're just now figuring it out. Which is a decade too late.
Now toss in some mega-events that could come from all the geopolitical/climate driven stuff.
1. Major curtailment of water use. Meaning green grass. Which includes golf courses. And monstrous charges for water supplied to second mega-mansions used by an aging couple for a few weeks or months a year. If the golf course community you live in suddenly becomes an immense financial burden (and no one wants to buy in), what happens to the North Scottsdale housing market?
2. Medical costs blow out of sight - massive demand to care for the monstrous and dying Boomer generation. Severe shortage of workforce to care for them. I defy anyone to predict the market for critical healthcare workers by 2035. Whatever you bet, I'll take the Over. We're all going to under estimate that crisis.
3. Immense shift from mega-mcmansions to high density housing. We'll be oversupplied with 3/4 acre 4,000' foot 5 bedroom homes and undersupplied with 1-2 bedroom condos/townhomes/apartments.
So many anomolies - so many geopolitical and climate driven events.
At the very core of survival the three essentials have always been "shelter, sustenance, and medical".
No reason to rehash the "sustenance" question. The climate driven threats to water and food supplies already exceed what I believed would be the worst levels I would witness before I died. (I've got a couple of good decades of life left).
The cost of shelter already exceeds the 2004 bubble - far beyond the 30% of income standard.
In response, birth rates are dropping. Population aging. If you can barely afford to live on your own, you certainly will rethink making some babies.
Those phenomenon are intensifying - not abating. So what does it all mean for housing?
The shortage of family-friendly housing is a major reason for declines in the sizes of families. Or decisions never to start a family. That trend has been going on in Arizona since 2011. But we're just now figuring it out. Which is a decade too late.
Now toss in some mega-events that could come from all the geopolitical/climate driven stuff.
1. Major curtailment of water use. Meaning green grass. Which includes golf courses. And monstrous charges for water supplied to second mega-mansions used by an aging couple for a few weeks or months a year. If the golf course community you live in suddenly becomes an immense financial burden (and no one wants to buy in), what happens to the North Scottsdale housing market?
2. Medical costs blow out of sight - massive demand to care for the monstrous and dying Boomer generation. Severe shortage of workforce to care for them. I defy anyone to predict the market for critical healthcare workers by 2035. Whatever you bet, I'll take the Over. We're all going to under estimate that crisis.
3. Immense shift from mega-mcmansions to high density housing. We'll be oversupplied with 3/4 acre 4,000' foot 5 bedroom homes and undersupplied with 1-2 bedroom condos/townhomes/apartments.
4. I could be full of shit.
5. I doubt it.