Phoenix Real Estate Interactive Home Price Charts - Weekly and Monthly Phoenix inflation-adjusted sold house prices are still above the 2005-2006 peak. High Season Winding Down The Cromford Report is estimating the average sold price per square foot will increase 0.8% from mid-April to mid-May. That’s a big increase for one month but it’s quite a slowdown in upward momentum from the 2.4% increase from mid-March to mid-April. The increase from mid-February to mid-March was 1.9%.
So many abnormal factors are in play. My belief - if you want to know what's going to happen with home prices watch what happens to employment, which is not easy. How many remote workers who came here to escape strict COVID restrictions will remain here? If the SVB failure continues to roil the tech sector employment in California, will tech employers demand that some/all workers report to an office if they think they can make it stick?
The TSC chip plants will go forward unless China somehow destroys the Taiwanese economy through war - but that threat is why TSC is moving its production here.
Speaking of wars - if for any reason Ukraine finally collapses as a nation four times larger in population continues to lean on them, food prices will go even higher. Toss on top of that brushfire the risk that despite huge snowfall this year, the Colorado River forces agricultural activities to cut back. Enormous population loss would result. Those workers will return to other countries in many cases. And while they occupy the cheapest of housing in remote locations, the sucking sound at the fringe impacts everyone near them.
Carvana and Lucid are dumping workforce. Electric vehicle startups will struggle as the automotive supply chain completes its restoration (almost there), and as extreme COVID Car pricing collapses.
And construction workforce will be slashed the moment that an oversupply is sensed - especially when developers are eating higher construction loan costs.
It's a weird world - nothing in my fifty years since I was a fresh faced Econ student comes close to matching this. We could see the Phoenix housing market collapse on a greater scale than anything that happened in 2005 forward.
Or the opposite.
I defy anyone to assess all of those factors, weigh them appropriately and predict the market successfully due to anything other than luck.
So many abnormal factors are in play. My belief - if you want to know what's going to happen with home prices watch what happens to employment, which is not easy. How many remote workers who came here to escape strict COVID restrictions will remain here? If the SVB failure continues to roil the tech sector employment in California, will tech employers demand that some/all workers report to an office if they think they can make it stick?
The TSC chip plants will go forward unless China somehow destroys the Taiwanese economy through war - but that threat is why TSC is moving its production here.
Speaking of wars - if for any reason Ukraine finally collapses as a nation four times larger in population continues to lean on them, food prices will go even higher. Toss on top of that brushfire the risk that despite huge snowfall this year, the Colorado River forces agricultural activities to cut back. Enormous population loss would result. Those workers will return to other countries in many cases. And while they occupy the cheapest of housing in remote locations, the sucking sound at the fringe impacts everyone near them.
Carvana and Lucid are dumping workforce. Electric vehicle startups will struggle as the automotive supply chain completes its restoration (almost there), and as extreme COVID Car pricing collapses.
And construction workforce will be slashed the moment that an oversupply is sensed - especially when developers are eating higher construction loan costs.
It's a weird world - nothing in my fifty years since I was a fresh faced Econ student comes close to matching this. We could see the Phoenix housing market collapse on a greater scale than anything that happened in 2005 forward.
Or the opposite.
I defy anyone to assess all of those factors, weigh them appropriately and predict the market successfully due to anything other than luck.