Phoenix median single-family house prices will probably match year-earlier levels by December or January. And then for the next 6 months, the real estate storyline will be that house prices are lower than a year ago. That could really change the expectations for future house prices and any remaining buyer urgency.
Started reading your reports during the Great Recession era. Soon learned that you were almost always weeks ahead of the rest of the analysts - and rarely wrong despite calling your shot first. Over the decade or so you've published, you've never once lost my confidence in you. Best thing about your reports - - you challenge your readers to find any explanation for any trend identified. Late Sunday morning coffee and a John Wake report - great stuff. Now . . . my thought . . . frequently stone cold nuts. When we finally get decent population data I bet we learn that Phoenix area population swings and tsunamis have a lot in common. COVID pushed a massive flood of people into the County. After hanging out here for a year or two, many remembered why they vacation in Arizona but don't live here. Now . . . . what to do about that emotional 2020/21 decision to buy a house?
Started reading your reports during the Great Recession era. Soon learned that you were almost always weeks ahead of the rest of the analysts - and rarely wrong despite calling your shot first. Over the decade or so you've published, you've never once lost my confidence in you. Best thing about your reports - - you challenge your readers to find any explanation for any trend identified. Late Sunday morning coffee and a John Wake report - great stuff. Now . . . my thought . . . frequently stone cold nuts. When we finally get decent population data I bet we learn that Phoenix area population swings and tsunamis have a lot in common. COVID pushed a massive flood of people into the County. After hanging out here for a year or two, many remembered why they vacation in Arizona but don't live here. Now . . . . what to do about that emotional 2020/21 decision to buy a house?
THANKS, Michael! Thanks for telling me. Sometimes I think I'm crazy for spending so much time on this.
And I just saw an article about some New Yorkers returning to New York after moving to Florida during the pandemic, https://therealdeal.com/2022/09/02/miami-ed-out-these-new-yorkers-have-had-enough-of-south-florida/.
That was what really killed the Phoenix market in the GFC, metro Phoenix population growth hit a brick wall for while.
Don't ever stop. I laugh now when I read people call Pollack the expert on AZ real estate issues
He's living on his legacy.
My family is stuffed with economists. We all love your work.